Oil zooms up $5-plus on Iran fears
Oil settles $5.60 higher to $141.65 as Middle East tensions have investors on edge. OPEC reports that global demand will grow by 50% by 2030.
Iranian missiles drive up oil
Increased less than 10%Increased 10% or moreDecreased less than 10%Decreased 10% or more or View results
NEW YORK -Oil rallied late Thursday, settling more than $5 a barrel higher, as traders reacted to talk of further turbulence in Iran and Nigeria, raising new supply concerns.
Light, sweet crude settled $5.60 higher to $141.65 a barrel. Prices had soared as high as $142.04 just before the settlement.
Traders said rumors that Iran test fired more missiles and of the apparent end of a cease-fire in Nigeria pushed prices up at the end of the trading day.
When global supply is as tight as it is right now, traders do not wait to confirm rumors, said Neal Dingmann, senior energy analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co.
"People are shooting first and asking questions later," he said, especially when the rumors are concerned such oil-rich countries as Iran and Nigeria.
Iran media reported that Tehran had test-fired a series of missiles in the Persian Gulf for the second day on Thursday, putting investors on edge.
However, American radar and satellite data do not back the reports. A senior military source said that Iran launched only one missile on Thursday, not a full round of tests, according to the latest U.S. intelligence assessments.
Mark Waggoner, president of Excel Futures, said that tensions throughout the Middle East are pushing up the price of oil, but he said that the recent events in Iran are of particular concern today.
Rumors of tension. Waggoner and Dingmann both noted that there was talk that they may have been an end to a cease fire in Nigeria, and said those rumors could have pushed up prices as well.
If tensions in the Middle East were to subside, Waggoner said, "I would think you would get $10 off [the price] almost immediately."
With the market so sensitive, geopolitical unrest, especially in Iran, which sits on 10% of the world's oil supply, any news of instability is enough to push the price of oil higher, said Stephen Schork, publisher of the industry newsletter, The Schork Report.
"This is still a bullish market that is trading as much on psychology as fundamentals," said Schork.
Escalating tensions in Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway for Middle East oil, posing a big problem in transporting oil and putting pressure on global supply, said Schork.
OPEC report. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Thursday in its "World Oil Outlook for 2008" that global energy demand will spike by more than 50% by 2030.
"Oil has been in the leading position in supplying the world's growing energy needs for the past four decades, and there is a clear expectation that this will continue," said the summary of the 214-page report.
OPEC also noted, however, that oil reserves, conservation and new methods of discovery mean that supply will keep pace with demand.
The summary that accompanied the report said that "the transportation sector will be the key to future oil demand growth." More than 4 billion people live in countries with fewer than one car for every 20 people, suggesting a growing global demand for vehicles.
According to the report summary, "there is certainly enough supply, and there is ample investment," which should lead to falling oil prices.
The summary cited the "significant weakening" of the greenback as one of the reasons that oil prices have been climbing. In addition, OPEC said that skyrocketing futures trading and "paper barrel" trading allows "unlimited and undetected speculation."
Climbing back up. Crude prices slid more than $9 a barrel Monday and Tuesday after Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he did not expect a future armed conflict with Israel or the United States.
The unwinding of oil prices after came just after prices hit a fresh record high. Crude futures surged to $145.85 a barrel on the Thursday ahead of the three-day July 4 holiday, before settling at a record close of $145.29 a barrel.
"I think it is clear that while there is a bubble built into this marketplace," said Schork, he is expecting "a rebound and another run to $150," by the end of the summer.
Waggoner also anticipates that crude oil prices will continue to charge forward. "Ultimately, we are still in a raging bull market," he said. "I expect the market to go up to $152."
In addition to geopolitical tensions, oil prices are being sent higher on "the draws on crude oil combined with the dollar problems and the government doing nothing to support the dollar," said Waggoner.
On Wednesday, crude prices settled flat after a bigger-than-expected gain in gasoline supplies countered tensions in Iran.
Gasoline prices retreat. A government report released Wednesday showed an unexpected climb in national gasoline stockpiles, which analysts say could indicate that drivers just aren't buying as much fuel.
Retail gas prices backed away from their record highs overnight, a daily survey by motorist group AAA showed on Thursday. The price of regular unleaded gasoline fell four-tenths of a cent to $4.104 a gallon.
Through the first half of the week, gas prices held at a record high of $4.108 a gallon. Gas prices have surged roughly 40% in the past year.
No comments:
Post a Comment